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ing grain prices. What he has are a few enormously wealthy exporters setting their own price upon his product.

"Argentina will never be a great agricultural country until she emerges from the chrysalis of monopoly which surrounds her grain trade. If the American farmer desires to test the efficacy of our own system of marketing and handling grain, and of our own methods of establishing prices for grain, let him proceed to study the Argentina system.

"I returned with a most wholesome respect for the American farmer, and I realize as never before, that the stability of this country depends upon the prosperity of the man who produces its wealth just as much or perhaps more than the man who consumes the products of the soil. But I also came back with a more intelligent regard for the great economic system which prevails in this country, which enables us to market grain at a minimum of profit between the man who produces it and the man who consumes it."-Pickell, J. Ralph, Agricultural Argentina, pp. 58-59.

CHAPTER XXIII

LIVE-STOCK AND MEAT INDUSTRY

Introductory. By reason of the large capital invested, the number of persons employed, and the value of the output, the meat packing industry of the United States ranks high among the great and fundamental industries of the country. Since American cotton, wheat and meat play such an important role in clothing and feeding the world, the meat and live-stock situation is one not merely of national but also of international concern.

The shifting of live-stock production to the open lands of the West and the concomitant growth of large centralized packing houses are the two outstanding features of the meat question in the United States. Five great packing house companies have risen above all competitors to a prominent position. Since the meat packing industry is one not protected by patents or monopoly, privileges or exclusive franchises of any kind, but represents the free play of competitive forces in American industrial evolution, the rise of five packing companies to a position of such vast and far-reaching power presents in concrete form certain unsolved economic and legal questions of public policy. Our eighteenth century legal philosophy of competition among small units does not square with our present-day economic facts of large scale business of efficient competition eliminating the weaker competitor.

This chapter aims to present in larger outline the basic factors involved, since the issue presented to the country by the meat packing industry is one of public concern and one which needs. constructive rather than destructive criticism.

The Live-stock Situation. The live-stock question and the meat packing question are, from the public standpoint, merely two aspects of the one problem of furnishing to the public a continuing supply of animal food at fair prices. The welfare of the live-stock producers and the welfare of the packers are of public concern merely as they influence the permanent and practical problem of producing meat and distributing the same to the consumers, the meat to be of the quality and quantity desired, at the time desired, and at a fair price for each service rendered.

Meat a Dear Food.-Meat is among the most expensive foods of mankind. As population increases, and cheap lands disappear, the live-stock increase fails to keep pace with the population increase. The live-stock industry, or at least the cattle and sheep industry, is characteristic of sparsely settled countries-empty countries with plenty of ranges for grazing purposes. In the past, at any rate, cattle and sheep raising has been a matter of extensive rather than of intensive farming.

Westward Movement of Live-stock Industry.-The development of manufacturing in the East and the consequent growth of large cities there have made it impossible for the farms of that section to supply their population with food. The grazing lands demanded for the raising of cattle and sheep are found in the West. The center of the production of corn and hay has moved to the more fertile lands of the Mississippi Valley. The fat cattle and hogs are fed in this section-over a thousand miles from the great cities of the seaboard. To reduce transportation costs, the dressed meats rather than the live animals are shipped east for consumption, and thus it is that the slaughtering business has moved westward with the live-stock industry. The dressed beef, for instance, weighs 55 per cent of the live beef, the remaining forty-five per cent of the animal going into byproducts or waste.

Shifts. Taking the twenty-year period, 1880-1900, as representative, we find shifts occurring as follows in various branches of the live-stock industry: (1) Practically the only sections of the country showing an increase in the number of cattle on farms were those west of the Mississippi. Here the number rose 75 per cent. The States east of the Mississippi, on the other hand, showed an actual decrease in the number of cattle of over a million and a quarter head. In 1880, 47 per cent of the cattle were west of the Mississippi; in 1900, the number was 62 per cent. The East of necessity furnishes whole milk to its city population, which necessitates a large number of dairy cattle, and a large slaughter of calves and of culls from dairy herds. In the year 1900, 72 per cent of the steers one year of age and over were west of the Mississippi, and 85 per cent of the cows two years of age and over not used for dairy purposes. In short, the beef industry had moved west of the Mississippi. (2) Much the greater part of the increase in the number of swine from 1880 to 1900 was in States west of the Mississippi. These western States had 39 per cent of the swine in 1880 and 50 per cent in 1900. (3) There has been a very marked

OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE OF LIVE STOCK

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decrease in the number of sheep in the section east of the Mississippi, the shrink amounting to about 8,000,000 head in 20 years. In 1880, 51 per cent of the sheep were west of the Mississippi; in 1900, 68 per cent were found there. The west showed an increase of five and a half million head of sheep in these twenty years.

Live-stock Countries.-Live-stock production follows the open country, not only in the United States, but also in other countries. Thus it is that the five other surplus meat countries, besides the United States, are Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Uruguay. Denmark, by reason of her bacon export is a factor of importance, but Denmark is unimportant as a beef or mutton producing country, and hence is no exception to the above rule.

Decrease in Number of Live Stock.-In the United States it was a matter of much comment, prior to the World War, that livestock population was not increasing at so fast a rate as the human population. While maintaining large exports of pork products, we also became in certain months a large importer of meat.

Using the figures published by the United States Department of Agriculture in its Report on the Meat Situation in the United States, we have the following facts regarding live-stock production: On the basis of the number of animals per 100 people, the returns for 70 years are as follows:

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* Figures for January 1, 1914, omit crop of calves, lambs, and pigs, and hence are not comparable with figures for 1910 or 1900. In this connection mention must be made of the tremendous increase in livestock production from 1914 to 1918, under war conditions, showing the possibilities in this field of agriculture.

In the United States, and in the rest of the world, meat is becoming a relatively scarce article of diet. However, this may be merely a temporary reaction from our glutting the markets thirty

years ago.

Outlook for the Future of Live Stock.-With the passing of cheap lands and of the great open ranges of the West, the question of our future live-stock supply becomes a serious one. Will we maintain our live-stock production? And if so, how? The packers,

the railroads, the bankers, the Federal and State governments and many other interests are now coöperating with the farmers for the purpose of increasing the number and improving the breed of live stock. The factors making for and the factors making against an increase may be considered in turn.

(1) For an Increase.-The breeding of cattle and sheep on the ranges represents one phase of extensive agriculture. But intensive agriculture is gradually encroaching on this area. This means that the breeding of live stock will need to shift to the more intensive form of agriculture, in most cases, if any increase is to be expected. The problem of an increase is therefore, a two-fold one, namely, an increase in live stock in the so-called range country of the West, and an increase in livestock in the farming sections of the rest of the country. The Federal Department of Agriculture made an optimistic report in the year 1916 on the subject "Livestock Production in the Eleven Far Western Range States." In these eleven States (Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Monana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming) the investigators for the Government found a decline of 13 per cent in the number of live stock between the years 1910 and 1914. This decline was attributed to the settlement of public lands and the consequent reduction of the range. However, in spite of this actual decline, the prediction was made that this decrease would in the future give way to an actual increase. The belief in an increase was based on the probability that the number of live stock on farms would be greater in the future; that the stock ranges in the national forests would continue to improve; that the carrying capacity of the range on the public domain would be increased by legal regulations; and that, finally, better and more scientific use would be made of forage. The Government's optimistic prediction is based on the calculation that the carrying capacity of the forest reserves can be increased by 15 per cent, and of the public domain by 30 per cent. Some consideration is also given to the use of better sires, and to more scientific feeding methods. The chief conclusions reached by this federal investigation are, to sum up, that hereafter there should be a slow increase in the output of beef and mutton in the range States of the West, but that this increase is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the cost of production. However, the problem of live stock increase cannot be solved by the eleven range States alone. As one of our leading publicists, Easton G. Osman, states it, "The future of meat depends on intensive agriculture rather than exten

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